Saturday, December 5, 2015

Paul Rhoades Will Not Return at Iowa State

ESPN reports that Paul Rhoades will not return at Iowa State University for next season.  Subsequentially, the Cyclones have hired Matt Campbell from Toledo.  So I am going to continue looking at FBS teams that have changed head football coaches.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Iowa State since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the median team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Iowa State has been below average on offense, defense and overall since 2008. The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


Gene Chizik's last season at Iowa State

2008 Iowa State finished the 2008 regular season at 2-10 and were bowl ineligible.  The Cyclones played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  Iowa State's best game was their 48-28 victory over #69 Kent State and their worst loss was 35-49 to #113 ranked Texas A&M which occurred during their 10 game losing streak.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #104 most productive college football team with the #64 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


 Paul Rhoads (2009 - 2015) as head football coach

2009 The Cyclones finished the regular season at 6-6 and defeated #80 ranked Minnesota 14-13 in their bowl game to finish the season 7-6. Iowa State again played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 9-7 victory over #16 ranked Nebraska and their worst game was a 23-24 loss was to #69 ranked Kansas State.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #82 ranked team in terms of total production with the #70 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Iowa State finished with a 5-7 regular season playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Iowa State's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 27-10 victory over #8 ranked Northern Illinois and their worst game was a 14-34 loss to #81 ranked Colorado.  Iowa State finished the season with the #95 ranked team in overall productivity and the #100 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Cyclones finished the regular season at 6-6 and lost their bowl game to #47 ranked Rutgers 13-27 to finish 6-7.  Iowa State  played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 37-31 victory over #5 ranked Oklahoma State and their worst game was a 23-30 loss was to #60 ranked Kansas State.  Iowa State had the #109 ranked team in terms of total production with the #111 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense. from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Cyclones finished the regular season again at 6-6 and again lost their bowl game to #25 ranked Tulsa 17-31 in the post season to finish 6-7 overall. Iowa State played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Iowa State's best game was a first week 38-23 victory over #25 ranked Tulsa and their worst loss was 24-31 to #63 ranked West Virginia.  Overall, Iowa State had the #72 ranked team with the #63 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
Iowa State finished the regular season 3-9 and were bowl ineligible.  The Cyclones played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their  victory over #90 ranked West Virginia 52-44 and their worst loss was to FCS Northern Iowa 20-28.  Overall, Iowa State had the #109 ranked team with the #103 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Iowa State finishing the regular season at 2-10.  Iowa State again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Cyclones best game was a victory over #42 ranked Toledo 37-30 and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Kansas 14-34.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #121 ranked team with the #91 ranked offense and the #124 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
A week before the end of the regular season, Iowa State announced that head football coach (and undergraduate economics major) Paul Rhoades would not return for the next season.  Coach Rhoades was allowed to finish the regular season and  the Cyclones finished 3-9 overall.  The Cyclones played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a victory was over #82 Texas (at the end of their season) and their worst loss was to (at the time) #94 ranked Kansas State 35-38.  Iowa State had the #109 ranked team in total production with the #101 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow 
University of Louisiana-Monroe and Toddy Berry

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