Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Kansas Jayhawks under Charlie Weis

ESPN reports that the Kansas Jayhawk's have fired head football coach Charlie Weis who was in the third year of a five year contract.  Here is my analysis of the Kansas Jayhawk's under former head football coach Weis' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

In the chart below, I have graphed the Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings since 2008 by the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team in the "league".  The first two seasons (2008 & 2009) were under Mark Mangino, the next two seasons (2010 & 2011) were under Turner Gill, and the last three seasons were under Charlie Weis.  As you can tell from the production rankings, Kansas has been a very poor performing football program for a number of seasons.


 
2014* Through the fifth week of the 2014 season.

I am only going to focus on Kansas under Charlie Weis for this blog.  I hope to come back and go back to the 2008 season at a later time.

2012
In his first season at the helm of the Kansas Jayhawks football program the Jayhawks finished at 1-11 and were bowl ineligible.  This season the Jayhawks again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Jayhawk's only victory was over FCS South Dakota State and their worst game was a loss to #72 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawks had the #117 ranked team with the #106 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense out of 124 FBS teams.

2013
Kansas finished the regular season at 3-9 and were again bowl ineligible.  Kansas again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning they were plus or minus one standard deviation from the league average SOS.  Kansas's best game was their victory over #88 ranked Louisiana Tech and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawk's had the #114 ranked team with the #122 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only four games coached by Charlie Weis, the Jayhawks were 2-2.  As of the end of the fifth week, Kansas has the #112 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #123 offense and the #86 defense.


2014 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes (to date):
June Jones at SMU

Monday, September 29, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Week number 5 is in the books and we have a new #1 team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com in the Texas A&M Aggies.  The Aggies are followed by Baylor, Michigan State and LSU as the top 4 teams in overall production.  Marshall who was #1 last week has dropped to #6 in terms of overall team production.  Expect teams to move up and down each week.

Rank Team
1 Texas A&M
2 Baylor
3 Michigan State
4 LSU
5 Nebraska
6 Marshall
7 East Carolina
8 Mississippi
9 Auburn
10 Oklahoma
11 Oregon
12 TCU
13 Alabama
14 Georgia Southern
15 Louisville
16 Wisconsin
17 Houston
18 UCLA
19 Duke
20 Maryland
21 Mississippi State
22 Memphis
23 Georgia
24 Cincinnati
25 UAB

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Competitive Balance in MLB

With the end of the Major League Baseball season, I have calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance and find that MLB was 1.509 for the 2014 season.  Below is a chart of the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance since 1982.  For the entire time period the average Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance is 1.700.   So for this time period, the 2014 MLB season was more competitive than the average since 1982.


If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel.

Monday, September 22, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Well a quarter of the regular season is now in the books.  I have again estimated the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com.  This week we have a new #1 team - the Marshall Thundering Herd.  Baylor has dropped to #5 (the bubble team in the new college football playoff format).  Thus the four most productive teams using my model are:  Marshall, Alabama, Duke and Mississippi.

Notice that seven of the top 10 teams are in the SEC!

Will this change?  Yes - probably, as the season progresses and as the teams production relative to the rest of the league changes.   Here is this week's top 25.

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Alabama
3 Duke
4 Mississippi
5 Baylor
6 Texas A&M
7 Georgia
8 LSU
9 Mississippi State
10 Auburn
11 Pittsburgh
12 Louisville
13 North Carolina State
14 Stanford
15 Arkansas
16 TCU
17 Michigan State
18 Missouri
19 Cincinnati
20 Nebraska
21 Oklahoma
22 Oregon
23 UAB
24 Wisconsin
25 East Carolina


Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Monday, September 15, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

With another week of the season in the books, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking.  Again the data is from cfbstats.com - worthwhile to check out.  As you can see, Baylor remains the most productive team in all of college football based on the model.  Also note that even though Florida State was idle last week, they have now cracked the top 25 in the model's ranking.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Pittsburgh
3 Duke
4 TCU
5 Marshall
6 Nebraska
7 LSU
8 Mississippi
9 Florida
10 Texas A&M
11 Oregon
12 Cincinnati
13 Mississippi State
14 Alabama
15 Oklahoma
16 UAB
17 Clemson
18 Louisville
19 Miami (Florida)
20 Memphis
21 Notre Dame
22 Georgia Southern
23 Florida State
24 Arizona State
25 Utah

Previous 2014 Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

June Jones Resigns at SMU

SMU has announced that head football coach June Jones has resigned effective yesterday.  Thus we have the first NCAA FBS head coaching change of the season.  As I did last season, I will write up a statistical summary of the team under the former head coach.  So that I do not get too far behind, here is the analysis of the SMU Mustang's under former head football coach Jones' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

First here is the SMU Mustang's ranking using the model above since 2008, Jones' first season as head coach all the way to the end of his tenure which is the second week in 2014.  In the chart below, we have the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team.  As you can see under Jones, the Mustangs started poorly and then had two seasons of improvement through 2010 and then have been a program on the slide since the 2011 season.  (Using the total ranking line in blue).  Below the chart are more details of the SMU Mustangs under now former head football coach June Jones.

2014* Through the second week of the 2014 season.

2008
In Jones' first season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished the regular season at 1-11.  SMU played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviation lower than the "league" average.  The Mustang's only victory was over FCS (at the time) Texas State, and their worst game was a loss to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #115 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense.  This was by far the worst complete season of the Mustang's under Jones' tenure.

2009
In Jones' second season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished overall at 8-5 and played in the first of four consecutive post-season bowl games.  SMU played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #39 ranked East Carolina and their worst game was a loss to #120 ranked Washington State.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #53 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.

2010
This was Jones' best season as head football coach, as the Mustang's finished overall at 7-7.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS measure was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the league average SOS.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #26 ranked Tulsa and their worst game was a loss to #94 ranked UTEP.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #40 ranked team with the #29 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.

2011
Even though the Mustangs improved their overall wins to finish 8-5, this season was not as productive as the previous one.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #9 ranked TCU and their worst game was a loss to #64 ranked Navy.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #54 ranked team with the #69 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2012
SMU finished at 7-6 including playing in a post-season bowl.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #11 ranked Fresno State and their worst game was a loss to #121 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #57 ranked team with the #61 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.

2013
SMU finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #89 ranked Temple.  Their worst loss was to #95 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #80 ranked team with the #78 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only two games coached by June Jones, the Mustangs lost both of the games played by a margin of 6-88.  One of their losses was to currently ranked #1 Baylor and the other was to currently ranked #86 North Texas.  As of the end of the second week, SMU has the #126 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #127 offense and the #121 defense.