Monday, September 15, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

With another week of the season in the books, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking.  Again the data is from cfbstats.com - worthwhile to check out.  As you can see, Baylor remains the most productive team in all of college football based on the model.  Also note that even though Florida State was idle last week, they have not cracked the top 25 in the model's ranking.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Pittsburgh
3 Duke
4 TCU
5 Marshall
6 Nebraska
7 LSU
8 Mississippi
9 Florida
10 Texas A&M
11 Oregon
12 Cincinnati
13 Mississippi State
14 Alabama
15 Oklahoma
16 UAB
17 Clemson
18 Louisville
19 Miami (Florida)
20 Memphis
21 Notre Dame
22 Georgia Southern
23 Florida State
24 Arizona State
25 Utah

Previous 2014 Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

June Jones Resigns at SMU

SMU has announced that head football coach June Jones has resigned effective yesterday.  Thus we have the first NCAA FBS head coaching change of the season.  As I did last season, I will write up a statistical summary of the team under the former head coach.  So that I do not get too far behind, here is the analysis of the SMU Mustang's under former head football coach Jones' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

First here is the SMU Mustang's ranking using the model above since 2008, Jones' first season as head coach all the way to the end of his tenure which is the second week in 2014.  In the chart below, we have the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team.  As you can see under Jones, the Mustangs started poorly and then had two seasons of improvement through 2010 and then have been a program on the slide since the 2011 season.  (Using the total ranking line in blue).  Below the chart are more details of the SMU Mustangs under now former head football coach June Jones.

2014* Through the second week of the 2014 season.

2008
In Jones' first season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished the regular season at 1-11.  SMU played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviation lower than the "league" average.  The Mustang's only victory was over FCS (at the time) Texas State, and their worst game was a loss to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #115 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense.  This was by far the worst complete season of the Mustang's under Jones' tenure.

2009
In Jones' second season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished overall at 8-5 and played in the first of four consecutive post-season bowl games.  SMU played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #39 ranked East Carolina and their worst game was a loss to #120 ranked Washington State.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #53 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.

2010
This was Jones' best season as head football coach, as the Mustang's finished overall at 7-7.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS measure was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the league average SOS.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #26 ranked Tulsa and their worst game was a loss to #94 ranked UTEP.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #40 ranked team with the #29 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.

2011
Even though the Mustangs improved their overall wins to finish 8-5, this season was not as productive as the previous one.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #9 ranked TCU and their worst game was a loss to #64 ranked Navy.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #54 ranked team with the #69 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2012
SMU finished at 7-6 including playing in a post-season bowl.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #11 ranked Fresno State and their worst game was a loss to #121 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #57 ranked team with the #61 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.

2013
SMU finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #89 ranked Temple.  Their worst loss was to #95 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #80 ranked team with the #78 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only two games coached by June Jones, the Mustangs lost both of the games played by a margin of 6-88.  One of their losses was to currently ranked #1 Baylor and the other was to currently ranked #86 North Texas.  As of the end of the second week, SMU has the #126 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #127 offense and the #121 defense.

Monday, September 8, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

I have started my NCAA FBS Top 25 rankings for this season.  As always, I am using data from cfbstats.com, which I highly recommend that you take a look at.  I am continuing to rank teams based on the results from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model that I have been using for the last few years.  Here are the rankings of teams based on their current on-field actions for the past two weeks.
 
Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Florida
3 Pittsburgh
4 Georgia Southern
5 Notre Dame
6 Texas State
7 LSU
8 Oregon
9 Oklahoma
10 Texas A&M
11 Arizona State
12 Kentucky
13 Marshall
14 Northern Illinois
15 Utah
16 Arizona
17 Auburn
18 Louisville
19 Tennessee
20 Alabama
21 Nebraska
22 BYU
23 Mississippi State
24 Clemson
25 Missouri


As you can see there are some surprises.  One is that Florida State is not in the Top 25 (currently ranked #53).  I suspect they will rise over the next few weeks as teams at the top now will be falling.

Each week I will be posting the top 25 based on the model.  So check back to see how the model ranks teams soley based on cumulative on-field production.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Florida Gators Since 2008

Since the Florida Gator's opening game against the Idaho Vandal's was cancelled due to weather last week, I thought that I would take a look at the Gator's using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.   The model looks at how team on field actions affect points scored and also points surrendered.  From that I am able to rank each team using the statistically significant weights of the various on field actions.  All rankings are based on the end of season.

Given I have all the data I use in the model starting with the 2008 season, I will examine the Florida Gators under the last three seasons with head football coach Urban Meyer and the first three seasons under head football coach Will Muschamp.  Here is a brief analysis of the Florida Gators under Urban Meyer at the time of his stepping down as head coach.

Below is a chart of the Florida Gators offense, defense and total production rankings since 2008 along with the rank of the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during the time period.   More information from the model is presented below.


2008
This is Florida's national championship season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and defeating both Alabama in the SEC championship game and Oklahoma in the national championship game.   Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#3 Oklahoma, #11 Alabama and #22 Georgia - all wins and a loss to #18 Mississippi).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #18 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.

2009
Statistically Florida was the most productive team again in 2009.  Florida finished the regular season at 12-0.  Florida lost the SEC championship game to #2 ranked Alabama and finished out the post season with a victory over #11 ranked Cincinnati to end the season at 13-1.  Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#11 Cincinnati, #22 Tennessee and #24 Arkansas - all wins and a loss to #2 Alabama).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #2 ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game.  Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.

Yes, Florida actually improved over their previous season on the defensive side of the ball, and finished as the most productive team in the nation, but were not considered national champions.

2010
In what ended up as Urban Meyer's last season as head football coach at Florida, the Gator's were not the same team as the last two seasons, slipping in production on both sides of the ball. Florida finished the regular season at 7-5.   Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-3 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#5 Alabama, #20 Mississippi State and #23 Florida State - all losses).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #37 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was to #34 ranked LSU.  Overall, the Gator's had the #46 ranked team with the #58 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense.

2011
With Muschamp taking over as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 6-6 and finished overall at 7-6 with their bowl victory over #44 ranked Ohio State.   Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-5 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#1 Alabama, #3 LSU,  #11 South Carolina, #14 Florida State and #21 Georgia - all losses).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #35 ranked Vanderbilt and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Auburn.  Overall, the Gator's had the #54 ranked team with the #96 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.

2012
Muschamp's second season has been the most productive of the three season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and finished overall at 11-2 with their bowl loss to #27 ranked Louisville.   Florida played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was greater than two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 4-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with victories over (#2 Florida State, #7 Texas A&M, #14 LSU, and #20 South Carolina, and a loss to #4 Georgia).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #2 ranked Florida State and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Louisville.  Overall, the Gator's had the #13 ranked team with the #72 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.

2013
In Muschamp's third season as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.   Florida played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-4 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with losses to (#1 Florida State, #11 LSU, #13 Missouri, and #14 South Carolina).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #53 ranked Toledo and their worst loss was to FCS Georgia Southern.  Overall, the Gator's had the #79 ranked team with the #114 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.

As you can see, Florida has been on a downward trend since the end of the 2009/10 season. 

Friday, August 22, 2014

Testing Spurrier's East Carolina Quote

Earlier this month, Steve Spurrier was quoted as saying, “Playing East Carolina is maybe a little bit better than playing one of those bottom-tier Big Ten teams.”  So I thought that I would use this quote as way to get the Honors Primetime group to see if this quote was true and if it could be extended to other FBS conferences.

To do this, we looked at how to rank NCAA FBS teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Function Model.  In class we went through all the gory details of how to calculate and judge the significance of the model - which I will skip in this blog post.

After estimating the offense and defensive production of each team from 2008 to 2013 and calculating the rank of total team productivity, we calculated the average end of season rank for all the teams in college football.  For simplicity, we just used the team's conference membership in 2013.

What the Honors Primetime students found is that Spurrier is correct, but not complete.  By that Spurrier's statement is true for all of the ten conferences in college football over the last six seasons plus the independent schools.

First we calculated the average rank of the East Carolina Pirates, which was 60.33 - or about the middle of the league.  Then we calculated the average rank for all the teams and found that each conference has at least one team with an average rank below the East Carolina Pirates during this time period.

Below is the average rank of the teams in each conference.  We have left the team names off of the table.  The numbers in red are the average rank of the teams that are below East Carolina.  (Note that the higher number ranking means less productive team).

ACC Big 12 AAC Big 10 CUSA IND MidAmerican MountainWest PAC 12 SEC SunBelt
22.50 15.67 27.33 16.33 48.33 33.67 23.67 9.83 8.50 4.50 55.00
33.17 19.50 36.33 20.33 60.33 43.50 55.17 43.00 32.00 23.83 63.00
34.00 20.17 41.67 33.50 62.17 48.17 62.00 54.00 34.00 31.67 69.50
36.83 38.67 49.17 35.67 66.17 90.00 66.00 60.00 43.17 32.33 82.50
40.50 40.50 52.83 37.50 68.17 105.17 69.83 60.67 48.00 33.17 83.50
47.00 46.67 59.67 42.00 72.17 114.17 70.17 69.00 48.67 35.67 86.33
47.83 49.83 61.00 56.00 75.00
71.50 77.67 57.50 42.67 92.00
64.00 56.83 62.67 59.83 80.83
71.83 78.50 65.83 55.17 118.00
65.67 94.83 66.33 72.50 86.17
75.17 89.00 69.83 56.00
71.83 95.17 93.17 82.50 86.17
97.50 91.83 71.17 56.83
74.50

84.33 91.33
99.17 103.00 102.33 57.50
76.67

94.17 99.67
104.33 103.33 104.00 59.00
88.83


100.00
123.00

65.00
89.17


103.00



84.83

Monday, August 18, 2014

SI on Changes in CFB Rankings

Short video about changes in the college football rankings for the selection committee.