Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Syracuse Fires Head Football Coach Scott Shafer

Syracuse dismissed head football coach Scott Shafer after three years at the helm of the Orangemen football program.  So here is a look at the Syracuse University football program since 2008.  This time period covers Greg Robinson's last season as head football coach, all of Doug Marrone's tenure and all of Scott Shafer's time at the helm of the football program.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Syracuse since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the median team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Syracuse has been above average on  defense for much of this time period, but below average on offense (except for Marrone's last season in 2012). The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.


Greg Robinson's last season at Syracuse
2008
Syracuse finished the 2008 regular season at 3-9 and were bowl ineligible.  The Orangemen played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was less than two standard deviations from the "league" average SOS, which is a rare occurrence.  Syracuse's best game was their 24-23 victory over #60 Notre Dame and their worst loss was 28-42 to #64 ranked Akron.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #110 most productive college football team with the #103 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production ModelWith two games left in the regular season, Syracuse fired head football coach Robinson.


 Doug Marrone (2009 - 2012) as head football coach

2009
Under new head football coach Doug Marrone, the Orangemen finished the regular season at 4-8. Syracuse now played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Syracuse's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 31-13 victory over #21 ranked Rutgers and their worst game was a 9-10 loss was to #103 ranked Louisville.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #93 ranked team in terms of total production with the #99 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Syracuse finished with a 7-5 regular season (with two of their wins over FCS teams) and defeated #69 Kansas State 36-34 in their post-season bowl game to finish 8-5 overall.  Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Syracuse's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 19-14 victory over #15 ranked West Virginia and their worst game was a 20-41 loss to #87 ranked Washington.  Syracuse finished the season with the #49 ranked team in overall productivity and the #67 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Orangemen finished the regular season at 5-7 and out of bowl eligibility.  Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 33-30 victory over #22 ranked Toledo and their worst game was a 20-33 loss was to #80 ranked Pitt.  Syracuse had the #75 ranked team in terms of total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Orangemen finished the regular season again at 7-5 and defeated #63 ranked West Virginia 38-14 in the post season to finish 8-5 overall. Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Syracuse's best game was a 45-26 victory over #27 ranked Louisville and their worst loss was 10-17 to #90 ranked Minnesota.  Overall, Syracuse had the #30 ranked team with the #26 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  At the end of the season, Doug Marrone left Syracuse for the head coaching position with the Buffalo Bills.


Scott Shafer (2013 - 2015) as head football coach

2013
The Scott Shafer era, Syracuse finished the regular season 6-6 and were bowl eligible defeating #71 ranked Minnesota 21-17.  The Orangemen played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #65 ranked Maryland 20-3 and their worst loss was to #69 ranked Northwestern 27-48.  Overall, Syracuse had the #74 ranked team with the #83 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Syracuse finished the regular season at 3-9.  Syracuse again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Orangemen best game was a victory over #59 ranked Central Michigan 40-3 and their worst loss was to #77 ranked Maryland 20-34.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #88 ranked team with the #119 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Syracuse announced that head football coach Scott Shafer would not return for the next season and  the Orangemen finished 4-8 overall.  The Orangemen played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a victory was over #42 ranked Boston College (at the end of their season) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Virginia 38-44.  Syracuse had the #90 ranked team in total production with the #87 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow 
University of Louisiana-Monroe and Toddy Berry 
Iowa State University and Paul Rhoades

Monday, December 14, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

With the Army-Navy game in the books, here is the final regular season NCAA FBS top 25 for the 2015 season using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Oklahoma is the most productive team in the FBS! The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.


Rank Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Appalachian State
3 Ohio State
4 Alabama
5 Western Kentucky
6 Florida State
7 Navy
8 Clemson
9 San Diego State
10 Mississippi
11 Iowa
12 Houston
13 Bowling Green
14 Georgia
15 Baylor
16 South Florida
17 Stanford
18 LSU
19 Wisconsin
20 Boise State
21 North Carolina
22 Michigan State
23 Toledo
24 Southern Mississippi
25 Louisiana Tech

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #14
2015 Top 25 for Week #13
2015 Top 25 for Week #12
2015 Top 25 for Week #11
2015 Top 25 for Week #10
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, December 7, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Oklahoma is the most productive team in the FBS! There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.


Rank Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Appalachian State
3 Ohio State
4 Navy
5 Alabama
6 Western Kentucky
7 Clemson
8 Florida State
9 San Diego State
10 Mississippi
11 Houston
12 Iowa
13 Bowling Green
14 Georgia
15 Baylor
16 South Florida
17 Stanford
18 LSU
19 Wisconsin
20 Boise State
21 North Carolina
22 Michigan State
23 Toledo
24 Southern Mississippi
25 Louisiana Tech

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #13
2015 Top 25 for Week #12
2015 Top 25 for Week #11
2015 Top 25 for Week #10
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Sports Pay and Gender

In Sports Economics one of the topics I talk about is salary of those in sports and one of the lectures focuses on differences in salary of men and women's NCAA basketball coaches based on research I have done with a former student of mine Sarah Foster.  In that paper we look at how male and female coaches are paid and how coaches between men's and women's programs are paid.

What we know is that the salaries by program are much different:  men's basketball coaches are paid more than women's basketball coaches.  What Sarah and I did was investigate what drives the differences and what we found was primarily the differences in revenues between the two basketball programs.

Mirroring this idea is this article on the difference in compensation between men's and women's soccer here in the US in which the author offers the hypothesis that the reason that salaries are different is due to different amounts of demand by soccer consumers (whether in terms of quantity and/or price).

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Paul Rhoades Will Not Return at Iowa State

ESPN reports that Paul Rhoades will not return at Iowa State University for next season.  Subsequentially, the Cyclones have hired Matt Campbell from Toledo.  So I am going to continue looking at FBS teams that have changed head football coaches.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Iowa State since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the median team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Iowa State has been below average on offense, defense and overall since 2008. The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


Gene Chizik's last season at Iowa State

2008 Iowa State finished the 2008 regular season at 2-10 and were bowl ineligible.  The Cyclones played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  Iowa State's best game was their 48-28 victory over #69 Kent State and their worst loss was 35-49 to #113 ranked Texas A&M which occurred during their 10 game losing streak.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #104 most productive college football team with the #64 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


 Paul Rhoads (2009 - 2015) as head football coach

2009 The Cyclones finished the regular season at 6-6 and defeated #80 ranked Minnesota 14-13 in their bowl game to finish the season 7-6. Iowa State again played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 9-7 victory over #16 ranked Nebraska and their worst game was a 23-24 loss was to #69 ranked Kansas State.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #82 ranked team in terms of total production with the #70 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Iowa State finished with a 5-7 regular season playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Iowa State's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 27-10 victory over #8 ranked Northern Illinois and their worst game was a 14-34 loss to #81 ranked Colorado.  Iowa State finished the season with the #95 ranked team in overall productivity and the #100 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Cyclones finished the regular season at 6-6 and lost their bowl game to #47 ranked Rutgers 13-27 to finish 6-7.  Iowa State  played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a 37-31 victory over #5 ranked Oklahoma State and their worst game was a 23-30 loss was to #60 ranked Kansas State.  Iowa State had the #109 ranked team in terms of total production with the #111 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense. from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Cyclones finished the regular season again at 6-6 and again lost their bowl game to #25 ranked Tulsa 17-31 in the post season to finish 6-7 overall. Iowa State played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Iowa State's best game was a first week 38-23 victory over #25 ranked Tulsa and their worst loss was 24-31 to #63 ranked West Virginia.  Overall, Iowa State had the #72 ranked team with the #63 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
Iowa State finished the regular season 3-9 and were bowl ineligible.  The Cyclones played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their  victory over #90 ranked West Virginia 52-44 and their worst loss was to FCS Northern Iowa 20-28.  Overall, Iowa State had the #109 ranked team with the #103 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Iowa State finishing the regular season at 2-10.  Iowa State again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Cyclones best game was a victory over #42 ranked Toledo 37-30 and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Kansas 14-34.  Overall, the Cyclones had the #121 ranked team with the #91 ranked offense and the #124 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
A week before the end of the regular season, Iowa State announced that head football coach (and undergraduate economics major) Paul Rhoades would not return for the next season.  Coach Rhoades was allowed to finish the regular season and  the Cyclones finished 3-9 overall.  The Cyclones played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cyclones best game was a victory was over #82 Texas (at the end of their season) and their worst loss was to (at the time) #94 ranked Kansas State 35-38.  Iowa State had the #109 ranked team in total production with the #101 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow 
University of Louisiana-Monroe and Toddy Berry

Monday, November 30, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Oklahoma is the most productive team in the FBS! There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Appalachian State
3 Ohio State
4 Alabama
5 Baylor
6 Navy
7 Clemson
8 San Diego State
9 North Carolina
10 Western Kentucky
11 Iowa
12 Florida State
13 Bowling Green
14 Mississippi
15 Southern Mississippi
16 Houston
17 Georgia Southern
18 Georgia
19 South Florida
20 Stanford
21 Wisconsin
22 Air Force
23 Boise State
24 Michigan State
25 Florida

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #12
2015 Top 25 for Week #11
2015 Top 25 for Week #10
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Louisana-Monroe Fired Head Football Coach

Louisana-Monroe has fired head football coach Todd Berry over halfway through his sixth season with the Warhawks.  So let's take a look at the Warhawks football program since 2008, which will be the last two seasons under head football coach Charlie Weatherbie and all of Todd Berry's tenure with the Warhawks as head football coach.  For those interested, the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks football program has been below average for most of the time period here.  Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Louisiana-Monroe since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple).  The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.



Since Todd Berry took over as head football coach, the Warhawks have averaged in the bottom 25% of total production (ranked #91) and offensive production (ranked #96) and averaged in the bottom half of all teams in terms of defensive production (ranked #73).  Below is some more details about the Warhawks for each season since 2008.

Charlie Weatherbie's last two seasons as head football coach

2008
Louisiana-Monroe finished the 2008 regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  The Warhawks played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was their 31-30 victory over #17 Troy and their worst loss was 10-24 to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Warhawks had the #109 most productive college football team with the #98 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2009
The Warhawks finished the regular season at 6-6 and while they were bowl eligible they did not play in a post-season bowl. Louisiana-Monroe again played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was a 27-25 victory over #84 ranked Florida Atlantic and their worst game was a 17-21 loss was to #86 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette.  Overall, the Warhawk's had the #76 ranked team in terms of total production with the #81 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production ModelFollowing this season the Warhawks decided to not to renew head football coach Weatherbie's contract.

 Todd Berry (2010 - 2015) as head football coach

2010
Louisiana-Monroe hired Todd Berry as their head football coach in December 2009.  Louisiana-Monroe finished with a 5-7 regular season playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks best game was a 28-14 victory over #60 ranked Troy and their worst game was a 22-23 loss to #104 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette.  Louisiana-Monroe finished the season with the #103 ranked team in overall productivity and the #103 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Warhawks finished the regular season at 4-8.  Louisiana-Monroe  played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks best game was a 38-10 victory over #106 ranked Troy (other three victories were over #FCS Grambling, #114 Middle Tennessee and #116 Florida Atlantic) and their worst game was a 21-38 loss was to #91 ranked North Texas.  Louisiana-Monroe had the #71 ranked team in terms of total production with the #89 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense. from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Warhawks continued to improve under Berry and what ended up as the only winning season under head football coach Berry. The Warhawks finished the regular season at 8-4 but lost to #54 ranked Ohio 14-45 in the post season. Louisiana-Monroe played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was again a 43-42 victory over #56 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was 28-31 to #108 ranked Auburn.  Overall, Louisiana-Monroe had the #58 ranked team with the #44 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This above average performance earned head football coach Berry a contract extension through the 2016 season.

2013
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks finished the regular season 6-6 but they did not merit an invitation to a bowl game.  The Warhawks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their  victory over #52 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette and their worst loss was to #70 ranked Arkansas State 14-42.  Overall, Louisiana-Monroe had the #101 ranked team with the #102 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Louisiana-Monroe finishing the regular season at 4-8.  Louisiana-Monroe again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Warhawks best game was a victory over #115 ranked Troy (other wins were over the #117, 119 and 122 ranked teams) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Kentucky 14-48.  Overall, the Warhawks had the #91 ranked team with the #110 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Toddy Berry made it through ten regular season games with a 1-9 record.  At the time of Berry's departure Louisiana-Monroe played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks only victory was over FCS Nicholls State and their worst loss was to (at the time) #116 ranked Idaho 13-27.  At the time of Berry's firing, Louisiana-Monroe had the #123 ranked team in total production with the #125 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow